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Rupee weakness: Possibility of falling below 90 against the dollar, impact of trade deal?
Mumbai, December 3, 2025: The decline of the Indian rupee against the US dollar shows no sign of stopping. In today's trading session, the rupee traded around 83.50 against the dollar, but according to experts, this level is likely to fall below 90 in the coming days. Analysts say that this decline is mainly due to the increase in interest rates in the US, fluctuations in global oil prices and the failure of the India-US trade deal.
With trade talks between India and the US at a standstill, the trade deficit between the two countries has increased. Additional duties imposed by India on goods exported to the US and bans on American products have hit Indian exporters hard. "In the absence of a trade deal, foreign investors are likely to leave India. This is directly reflected in the depreciation of the rupee," said economic expert Prof. Rajesh Sharma.
There is also an atmosphere of concern regarding foreign portfolio investment (FPI). FPI outflows from India last month were $12 billion, 30% higher than in 2024. Volatility in the stock market and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have led investors to seek safer options. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has tried to support the rupee by intervening, but the impact has been limited.
On the other hand, rising oil import costs have put pressure on India's trade bill. Global oil prices have crossed $85 per barrel, which is having a direct impact on import costs. The government has announced export incentive schemes as a temporary measure, which will provide subsidies to exporters.
According to analysts, the rupee will remain between 85 and 90 in the next three months. "If an India-US trade deal is not done soon, the rupee's decline will accelerate further," said Sunil Mehta, president of the Indian Chamber of Commerce. Investors are advised to watch this carefully and invest in various options.
Mumbai, December 3, 2025: The decline of the Indian rupee against the US dollar shows no sign of stopping. In today's trading session, the rupee traded around 83.50 against the dollar, but according to experts, this level is likely to fall below 90 in the coming days. Analysts say that this decline is mainly due to the increase in interest rates in the US, fluctuations in global oil prices and the failure of the India-US trade deal.
With trade talks between India and the US at a standstill, the trade deficit between the two countries has increased. Additional duties imposed by India on goods exported to the US and bans on American products have hit Indian exporters hard. "In the absence of a trade deal, foreign investors are likely to leave India. This is directly reflected in the depreciation of the rupee," said economic expert Prof. Rajesh Sharma.
There is also an atmosphere of concern regarding foreign portfolio investment (FPI). FPI outflows from India last month were $12 billion, 30% higher than in 2024. Volatility in the stock market and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have led investors to seek safer options. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has tried to support the rupee by intervening, but the impact has been limited.
On the other hand, rising oil import costs have put pressure on India's trade bill. Global oil prices have crossed $85 per barrel, which is having a direct impact on import costs. The government has announced export incentive schemes as a temporary measure, which will provide subsidies to exporters.
According to analysts, the rupee will remain between 85 and 90 in the next three months. "If an India-US trade deal is not done soon, the rupee's decline will accelerate further," said Sunil Mehta, president of the Indian Chamber of Commerce. Investors are advised to watch this carefully and invest in various options.
With trade talks between India and the US at a standstill, the trade deficit between the two countries has increased. Additional duties imposed by India on goods exported to the US and bans on American products have hit Indian exporters hard. "In the absence of a trade deal, foreign investors are likely to leave India. This is directly reflected in the depreciation of the rupee," said economic expert Prof. Rajesh Sharma.
There is also an atmosphere of concern regarding foreign portfolio investment (FPI). FPI outflows from India last month were $12 billion, 30% higher than in 2024. Volatility in the stock market and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have led investors to seek safer options. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has tried to support the rupee by intervening, but the impact has been limited.
On the other hand, rising oil import costs have put pressure on India's trade bill. Global oil prices have crossed $85 per barrel, which is having a direct impact on import costs. The government has announced export incentive schemes as a temporary measure, which will provide subsidies to exporters.
According to analysts, the rupee will remain between 85 and 90 in the next three months. "If an India-US trade deal is not done soon, the rupee's decline will accelerate further," said Sunil Mehta, president of the Indian Chamber of Commerce. Investors are advised to watch this carefully and invest in various options.
